English Title:
Fed rate hike call seen tight as inflation heats up

中文标题：
随着通货膨胀的升温,美联储的升息呼吁变得紧张

English Content:
By Ann Saphir Oct 14 (Reuters) - A Federal Reserve interest-rate decision later this month may be a closer call than previously thought after Labor Department data showed consumer prices were up 3.7% last month from a year earlier, well above the Fed's 2% target and moving in the wrong direction. Higher gasoline prices from the Middle East war were a main driver. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 2.6%, more than the 2.5% economists polled by Reuters had projected. The Fed lifted the policy rate in September to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% to bring down too-high inflation, and officials have said they are looking closely for signs of broadening price pressures that could keep inflation high even if gas prices fall, necessitating more policy tightening. Wednesday's data contained plenty of such signs. "The surprise was not concentrated in any one item, like it was with wireless in the August report, but instead reflected a number of components showing strength, i.e., it was broad-based," wrote Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights. Software prices were up 28% from a year earlier, the largest increase ever, and toy prices also notched a record rise, the data showed -- emblematic of inflationary impulses from both AI-driven demand and higher tariffs under the Trump administration. "This means that inflation is broadening out, something that is not a good omen for the Fed and would raise the probability for an increase in rates at the end of the October FOMC meeting," wrote Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio Aleman, referring to the Fed's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which next meets October 27-28. In recent weeks several of the Fed's most influential policymakers have signaled there's time to weigh more data before delivering what most believe will be at least one more rate hike by year's end, and traders had bet heavily against a second straight hike under Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh -- especially just a week before November elections that will decide if Trump's Republican party holds on to majorities in Congress. After Wednesday's economic data, interest-rate futures are priced for around even odds of an October rate hike, a place of unusual uncertainty around the outcome of a Fed decision just two weeks away. Fed policymakers are also weighing the risk of tightening too fast and unduly slowing the labor market. Unemployment has been low, but job gains have also cooled. "September CPI keeps inflation concerns alive, with core inflation still sticky, but weaker jobs data and fragile consumer sentiment mean the Fed still has room to hold in October," PPHC Chief Economist Martin Beck said. (Reporting by Ann Saphir, Michael S. Derby and Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Mark Potter and Andrea Ricci)

中文正文：
由Ann Saphir October 14(路透社)发布 — — 美联储本月晚些时候的利率决定可能比以前想象的要近,因为劳工部的数据显示,上个月消费者价格比一年前上升了3.7%,远远高于美联储2%的目标,并朝着错误的方向发展。 来自中东战争的汽油价格上涨是主要的驱动力。 除粮食和能源价格波动外,核心消费价格指数(CPI)上升了2.6%,超过了路透社调查的2.5%经济学家的预测。 美联储在9月将政策利率提升到3.75%—4.00 %的目标范围,以降低过高的通胀,官员们表示,他们正在密切寻找价格压力扩大的迹象,即使气价下跌,通胀也会居高不下,因此有必要采取更严格的政策。 星期三的数据中有很多这样的迹象。 "这个惊喜并没有集中在任何一个项目上,就像8月报告中的无线一样,而是反映了一些显示力量的组件,即它具有广泛的基础","通货膨胀透视创始人奥迈尔·谢里夫写道. 软件价格比一年前上涨了28%,是有史以来增幅最大的,玩具价格也上涨了28% 数据以创纪录的涨幅记录显示 — — 表明特朗普政府下由AI驱动的需求和更高关税带来的通胀冲动。 "这意味着通货膨胀正在扩大,这对美联储来说不是一个好兆头,并且会提高10月FOMC会议结束时利率上升的概率",雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)首席经济学家欧根尼奥·阿莱曼(Eugenio Aleman)写道,他提到了美联储制定利率的联邦开放市场委员会,该委员会接下来于10月27日至28日召开会议. 在最近几周里,美联储最有影响力的决策者们已经发出信号,表示在提供多数人认为每年年底至少再提高一次利率之前,有时间来权衡更多的数据,而贸易商们已经对美联储主席凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)的第二次直升进行激烈的赌注 — — 特别是在11月的选举前一周,选举将决定特朗普的共和党是否坚持国会多数党。 在星期三的经济数据之后, 利率期货的价格大约是十月利率上涨的概率, 也就是两周后美联储决定的结果的异常不确定性。 美联储决策者也在权衡紧缩过快和不当的风险 劳动力市场放缓。 失业率一直较低,但就业增长也有所减缓。 "9月的消费物价指数让通货膨胀关切继续存在,核心通货膨胀仍然粘着,但就业数据较弱,消费者情绪脆弱,意味着美联储在10月仍有余地持有",PPHC首席经济学家马丁·贝克表示. (Ann Saphir、Michael S. Derby和Lucia Mutikani的报告;Mark Potter和Andrea Ricci编辑)