English Title:
US inflation heats up in September; Fed rate hike this month back on table

中文标题：
美国通货膨胀在9月升温;美联储本月提速

English Content:
By Lucia Mutikani 5 min read By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - US consumer prices accelerated in September as the cost of gasoline surged, dealing another blow to President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of the November 3 midterm elections and putting an interest rate increase later this month back on the radar. The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday showed a broadening of price pressures beyond energy, raising concerns among economists that underlying inflation could be getting sticky. There was also an AI-related boost to inflation last month. Financial markets now see the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at its October 27-28 meeting as a closer call than before the data was released. The report added to surveys this month that showed a further deterioration in consumer sentiment and a plunge in Trump's approval rating, driven by angst over the rising cost of living. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed about 78% of Americans blamed Trump's policies, including tariffs and the Middle East conflict, for rising prices, which are outpacing wages. "The inflation we're experiencing right now is largely the result of erratic policy from the executive branch," said Kyle Moore, chief economist at the Century Foundation, a progressive think tank. "Worse still, the directionless war in Iran continues to disrupt global supply chains. This administration has also been wholly unwilling to moderate the pace of the AI and data-center buildout." The CPI rose 0.6% last month after climbing 0.4% in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said, in line with economists' expectations. In the 12 months through September, the CPI advanced 3.7% after rising 3.4% in August. A 9.1% surge in gasoline prices accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI over the month. The US-Israeli war with Iran is driving up energy prices. Other motor fuels, which include diesel, soared 11.9% last month and were up 60.9% on a year-over-year basis. Diesel prices at the pump are at record highs, and there are fears that those costs will soon feed through to higher prices at the supermarket. Food prices were unchanged after gaining 0.1% in both July and August. Grocery store prices dipped 0.1% over the month as beef prices dropped 1.0% and the cost of dairy and related products eased 0.9%. Egg prices declined 1.3%. But prices for nonalcoholic beverages surged 0.9%, while fruits and vegetables cost 0.5% more, with banana prices shooting up 1.0%, in what could be early signs of rising trucking costs being passed on to consumers. Lettuce prices rebounded 3.9% as a cyclospora outbreak faded. Grocery prices rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis. Average hourly earnings for all employees declined 0.7% in September from a year ago, after falling 0.3% in August, underscoring the squeeze on consumers in what economists call the bottom of a K-shaped economy. Economists said this data raised doubts about whether consumers could maintain their robust pace of spending. "While much of the lost purchasing power is due to rising energy costs, there is no reason to expect that to fade in the near term," said Eric Winograd, chief US economist at AllianceBernstein. "The bottom part of the K-shaped economy is losing ground, as anybody who has seen campaign ads on TV the last few weeks has heard." With the cost of living rising, the Social Security Administration announced a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits for 2027. The programs benefit nearly 72 million Americans, including retirees, the disabled and certain widows, widowers and children. Social Security retirement benefits will, on average, increase by $75 per month. Stocks on Wall Street fell. The dollar advanced versus a basket of currencies. Yields on US Treasury notes and bonds rose. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3% in September, matching the gain in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the so-called core CPI would increase 0.2%. The core CPI was lifted by a 0.4% advance in the cost of shelter, including hotel and motel rooms. Owners' equivalent rent, a measure of the amount homeowners would pay to rent or would earn from renting their property, rose 0.3%. Airline fares rose 1.2% amid higher jet fuel prices. Consumers paid more for gardening and lawn care services, likely reflecting worker shortages amid a crackdown on undocumented immigrants. The costs of recreation and education also rose, as did those of hospital and dental services. Overall services prices increased 0.4%. They were also up 0.4% excluding energy. Core goods prices rose 0.3%, pushed up by a 0.7% increase in the cost of used cars and trucks. Apparel prices climbed 0.3% and the cost of toys rebounded 4.2%, suggesting some lingering pass-through from tariffs. But prescription medication was cheaper. Prices for computers and peripherals jumped 1.3%, reflecting AI-related investment, while the cost of computer software and accessories rebounded 0.4%. In the 12 months through September, core CPI inflation was 2.6%, compared with 2.4% in August. The US central bank tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for its 2% inflation target. Financial markets raised the chances of a rate hike at the Fed's meeting this month to roughly 37% from about 22% prior to the release of the CPI report, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed. The odds of a rate increase this month had diminished following underwhelming payroll gains in September as well as cooler-than-expected PCE inflation readings for July and August. The Fed in September raised its overnight benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, its first hike in three years, and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the months ahead. Most economists continue to expect the Fed will hold rates steady this month and raise them in December. Based on the CPI data, economists' estimates for core PCE inflation ranged from 0.3% to 0.4%, which would mean a year-over-year reading of 3.1%. Producer price data being released on Thursday could impact those estimates. Core PCE inflation was 0.2% in August and 3.0% on a year-over-year basis. "What is interesting is that the primary drivers of inflation are supply-side policies that are better addressed by the fiscal authority," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "However, that is not going to happen anytime soon, which leaves the Fed to address a re-establishment of price stability." (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao)

中文正文：
由Lucia Mutikani 5 minute 读自 Lucia Mutikani WASINGTON, 10月14日(路透社)——美国消费价格在9月随着汽油成本的上涨而加速, 劳工局星期三发表的消费物价指数报告显示,物价压力已扩大到能源之外,这引起了经济学家的担忧,即潜在的通货膨胀可能变得粘滞。 上个月通货膨胀也出现了AI相关刺激. 金融市场现在认为,美联储10月27日至28日会议作出的利率决定比公布数据之前更接近。 报告补充了本月的调查,显示消费者情绪进一步恶化,特朗普在对生活成本上升的愤怒驱使下获得的认可评级下降. 路透社/伊普索斯的民意调查显示,约有78%的美国人指责特朗普的政策,包括关税和中东冲突,导致价格上涨,其速度超过了工资. "我们现在所经历的通货膨胀 在很大程度上是由于不稳定 世纪基金会首席经济学家凯尔·摩尔(Kyle Moore)说, "然而,伊朗的无方向战争继续扰乱全球供应链. 这个政府也完全不愿缓和AI和数据中心建设的步伐". 8月攀升0.4%之后,上个月消费物价指数上升了0.6%,劳工部劳工统计局说,这符合经济学家的期望。 在直到9月的12个月里,消费物价指数在8月上升了3.4%。 汽油价格暴涨9.1%,占该月消费物价指数增长的一半以上。 美以战争与伊朗正在推动能源价格上涨。 其他包括柴油在内的机车燃料,上月飙升11.9%,逐年上升60.9%. 水泵的柴油价格创下历史新高,人们担心这些成本很快会渗透到超市更高的价格. 粮食价格在7月和8月均上涨了0.1%。 由于牛肉价格下跌1.0%,奶制品及相关产品成本降低0.9%,因此该月食品商店价格下跌0.1%。 鸡蛋价格下降 1.3%. 但非酒精饮料的价格暴涨了0.9%,而水果和蔬菜的价格则上涨了0.5%,香蕉价格上升了1.0%,这有可能是向消费者转移卡车成本上升的早期迹象。 低价回升3.9%, 杂货价格逐年上涨1.8%. 9月,所有雇员的平均小时收入比一年前下降了0.7%,比8月下降了0.3%,这凸显了经济学家称之为K形经济底层的消费者受到的挤压。 经济学家说,这一数据使人们怀疑消费者是否能够保持强劲的支出速度。 “虽然购买力的损失大部分是由于能源成本的上升, 但没有理由期望近期内会逐渐消退, K型经济的底部正在逐渐衰落, 随着生活费用的增长,社会保障管理局宣布对2027年社会保障和补充保障收入福利进行3.6%的生活费调整。 这些方案使近72人受益 数百万美国人,包括退休人员、残疾人和某些寡妇、鳏夫和儿童。 社会保障退休福利平均每月增加75美元。 华尔街的股票下跌。 美元对一篮子货币领先。 美国国库纸币和债券的汇率上升。 不包括不稳定的食品和能源成分,消费物价指数在9月份上升了0.3%,与8月份的收益相匹配。 路透社调查的经济学家预测,所谓的核心消费物价指数将增加0.2%。 核心消费物价指数在包括旅馆和汽车旅馆房间在内的住房费用方面提前了0.4%。 房主的同等租金,即房主将支付租金或从其房产租金中赚取的收入,增加了0.3%。 飞机燃油价格上升1.2%。 消费者为园艺和草坪护理服务付出了更多的费用,这可能反映了工人在镇压无证移民过程中的短缺。 娱乐和教育费用也有所增加,医院和牙科服务的费用也有所增加。 服务价格总体上涨0.4%。 不包括能源,也增加了0.4%。 核心货物价格上涨0.3%,废旧汽车和卡车费用增加0.7%。 外观 价格攀升了0.3 %,玩具成本反弹了4.2%,这表明一些遗留下来的关税过关。 但处方药更便宜 计算机和外围设备的价格猛增1.3%,反映了与AI有关的投资,而计算机软件和配件的成本反弹了0.4%。 在9月之前的12个月里,核心消费物价指数通胀率为2.6%,而8月是2.4%。 美国中央银行追踪个人消费支出价格指数的2%通胀目标。 金融市场将美联储本月会议的利率提升的几率从发布消费物价指数报告前的大约22%提高到大约37%,CME集团的Fed Watch工具显示. 由于9月工资增长不足,以及7月和8月的PCE通货膨胀率比预期低,本月通货膨胀率上升的几率降低。 美联储在9月将一夜之间的基准利率提高了25个基点,达到3.75%-4.00 % , 这是美联储三年来第一次提振利率,并标出了未来几个月借款成本的进一步上涨。 大部分经济学家继续期望美联储本月将稳住利率,并在12月提高利率. 依据 消费物价指数数据,经济学家对PCE核心通胀率的估计从0.3%到0.4%不等,这意味着年复一年的读数为3.1%。 星期四公布的生产者价格数据可能影响这些估计数。 PCE核心通胀率8月为0.2%,逐年3.0%. “有趣的是,通货膨胀的主要驱动因素是供应方政策,由财政当局更好地处理,” "然而,这不会很快发生,这让美联储去解决重新建立价格稳定的问题". (Lucia Mutikani报告;Andrea Ricci和Paul Simao编辑)