English Title:
China factory-gate inflation heats up as commodity costs rise, CPI lags forecasts

中文标题：
随着商品成本的上升,中国的工厂门膨胀率上升,消费物价指数滞后预测

English Content:
By Qiaoyi Li and Liz Lee BEIJING, Oct 14 (Reuters) - China's producer prices rose at their fastest pace in more than four years in September while consumer inflation edged up, as pricier oil and commodities lifted factory-gate costs even as weak domestic demand kept broader price pressures contained. The data suggests prices are revving up for manufacturers, but weak consumer demand continues to restrain inflation, reinforcing concerns that China still faces an uneven recovery driven more by exports than spending. Household spending remains subdued and private-sector confidence fragile despite a series of stimulus measures, underscoring persistent weakness in domestic demand and broader economic imbalances. The producer price index rose 5% from a year earlier, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Wednesday, up from 3.8% in August and beating the estimated 4.5% rise in a Reuters poll. That marks the fastest pace of factory-gate inflation since June 2022. "Much of the upward pressure still came from commodity supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, with prices rising particularly sharply in fuel processing, chemicals and non-ferrous metals," said Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics, who expects prices to fall back next year. Higher oil and commodity prices, driven by transport disruptions, adverse weather and geopolitical tensions, have increased cost pressures for manufacturers, though sluggish demand has limited the pass-through to consumers. The consumer price index (CPI) gained 0.9% year-on-year, compared with a 0.8% increase in August, and came in below economists' forecast for a 1% rise. Gasoline prices soared 16.6% from a year earlier and contributed about 0.47 percentage points to headline CPI growth, the statistics agency said. Underlying consumer price pressures, however, remained muted, suggesting households are still cautious about spending. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 1% on the year, unchanged from August. Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, said a key question is whether stronger industrial momentum can gradually feed into employment, income growth and consumer confidence. "If that transmission mechanism improves, the current divergence between producer and consumer prices could narrow from the demand side, creating a more balanced and durable recovery in 2027." Markets were little changed, with China's blue-chip index down 0.1% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.1%.

中文正文：
由Liqiaoyi和Liz Lee BEIJING著,10月14日(路透社)——9月中国生产商价格以4年多来最快的速度上涨,而消费者通货膨胀则有所上升,因为价格更低的石油和商品抬高了厂门成本,即使国内需求疲软使更广泛的价格压力得到控制。 数据表明,制造商的价格正在回升,但消费者需求疲软继续抑制通货膨胀,这加剧了人们的关切,即中国仍然面临由出口而不是支出驱动的不平衡复苏。 尽管采取了一系列刺激措施,但家庭支出仍然疲软,私营部门的信心仍然脆弱,这突出表明了国内需求持续疲软,经济更加失衡。 制作人价格指数比一年前上升了5%,国家统计局的数据显示,从8月的3.8%上升到8月的4. 这标志着自2022年6月以来工厂大门通货膨胀速度最快. "上扬的压力很大,仍然来自中东冲突造成的商品供应中断,燃料加工、化学品和有色金属的价格特别急剧上涨,"阮黄说: 南,中国首都经济学经济学家,预计明年价格会回落. 由于运输中断、不利的天气和地缘政治紧张,石油和商品价格上升,增加了制造商的成本压力,尽管需求缓慢,限制了消费者的通行。 消费物价指数(CPI)逐年增长0.9%,而8月份增长0.8%,低于经济学家的预测1%。 汽油价格比一年前飙升16.6%, 然而,消费者价格的基本压力仍然微乎其微,这表明家庭对支出仍然持谨慎态度。 核心通货膨胀不包括不稳定的粮食和能源价格,比8月份上升1%。 Guatei Junan International首席经济学家周豪说,一个关键问题是,更强大的工业势头能否逐步促进就业、收入增长和消费者信心。 "如果这种传输机制得到改善,目前生产者和消费者价格之间的差异可能会缩小需求方,从而形成更加平衡和更加平衡的市场 2027年持久恢复". 市场变化不大,中国蓝芯指数下降0.1%,上海综合指数上升0.1%.