English Title:
Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE) Slide as Treasury Yields Surge. Why Valuations Matter

中文标题：
卡特彼勒(CAT)和Deere(DE)幻灯片作为Forse Yields Surge. 估价为何重要

English Content:
On October 7, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) slid as much as 7% to around $807-$813, with Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) down 4% to roughly $658 as the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.7%, its highest level in over two decades. Industrial stocks were among the hardest-hit sectors, while the S&P 500 finished down approximately 0.2%, reflecting broader pressure from rising Treasury yields alongside concerns about a federal inquiry into competition in the agricultural equipment industry. The mechanism is simple: heavy equipment is typically purchased on credit, whether by construction firms financing a fleet of excavators or farmers financing a combine, so when long-term borrowing costs rise, the effective price of that equipment rises alongside them, regardless of how strong current order books appear. That's why industrials as a whole fell more than three times compared to the broader market, and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT), the largest and most valuable name in the sector, took the worst hit. Valuations Were Already Stretched The most important aspect, however, is that both stocks were already trading at high multiples before the October 7 selloff, which alters how this selloff should be read. Caterpillar traded at approximately 37.1 times trailing earnings on October 6, before the selloff, above even the standards of an industrial sector trading well above its historical norms, with a forward multiple in the mid-20s. Deere's multiples were also similarly inflated, despite Deere's agricultural end-markets currently experiencing a cyclical slump rather than a demand boom. The valuation concerns aren't new: at the end of June, Michael Burry announced a short position in Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) at $1,060.98, claiming that the stock's AI-driven surge had inflated its valuation beyond what its underlying earnings could support. Caterpillar's AI Exposure Adds a Second Risk However, the two stocks don't have equal exposure to the same story. Caterpillar's trailing sales growth has been more than twice that of Deere's, 18.36% versus 7.98%, supported by growing data-center power demand alongside strong performance in its Construction and Resource Industries segments, with a backlog that extends into 2029 and 2030. That offers Caterpillar's larger multiple more growth to point to, but it also means Caterpillar faces a second source of valuation risk in addition to interest rates: sentiment toward AI infrastructure spending in particular. Its Power & Energy segment generated $8.24 billion in total sales in the second quarter of 2026, up 17% year-over-year, while data center demand has emerged as a significant driver of the company's growth story. That dual vulnerability is why the more relevant question is not whether Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) can continue to grow, but whether its AI-related power sector can compensate for a slower construction cycle. The stock has already shown that it can sell off on that trade alone, regardless of rates. Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) fell 4% in mid-September, while Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) increased 1% on the same day, due to concerns that hyperscaler data-center commitments had been overextended. The split only makes sense if investors distinguish Caterpillar's AI-driven premium from its more traditional construction and mining operations. Jim Cramer has stated that the pullback may be an opportunity because Caterpillar's engines and power-generation equipment have become an important source of data-center electricity capacity. Deere Is a Different Recovery Bet Meanwhile, Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) is a more conventional cyclical-recovery bet. Its bull case is based on agriculture demand bottoming and rising through 2027. The company boosted its fiscal 2026 net-income forecast to $4.75 billion-$5.00 billion, although management continues to expect large agricultural equipment demand in the US and Canada to fall 15%-20% this fiscal year. Lower farm profitability, increased input prices, and higher interest rates have made farmers more hesitant to replace expensive gear. That is why Deere's investment case is less concerned with AI sentiment and more with whether its competitive advantages, technology adoption, and improved used-equipment inventories will convert into a long-term recovery. Hedge Fund Positioning Hedge fund ownership in both companies fell modestly heading into the selloff. Caterpillar's holdings declined from 87 funds in the first quarter to 84 in the second, while Deere's dropped from 62 to 59. The declines are slight and nearly equal in size, but they lean in the same direction as the valuation picture: institutional investors were already reducing exposure to two stocks trading at high multiples before long yields reached a two-decade high. Insider Monkey's Verdict The next key indicator for both stocks will be whether long yields stabilize, given their role in the broader market selloff, alongside regulatory concerns affecting equipment manufacturers. However, investors should be careful not to consider this purely as a rate story that leads to a discount on otherwise reasonably priced companies. Both Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) and Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) began the week trading at some of their highest multiples in their respective trading histories. Investors looking for an entry point in this selloff should distinguish between buying a brief rate-driven drop in a company whose fundamentals still warrant a premium and buying a stock whose multiple was already well ahead of its growth rate before the October 7 decline began. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CAT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CAT and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about thischeapest AI stock.

中文正文：
10月7日,卡特彼勒公司(NYSE:CAT)滑落至7%至807-813美元左右,Deere & Company(NYSE:DE)因30年国库收益攀升至5.7%而下降4%至约658美元,这是20多年来的最高水平. 工业股票是受影响最大的部门之一,而S&P 500则完成了约0.2%的削减,这反映了财政部增产带来的更大压力,同时也反映了对联邦调查农业设备行业竞争情况的关切。 该机制很简单:重型设备通常是通过信贷购买的,无论是由建筑公司为一批挖掘机融资,还是由农民为联合企业融资,因此,当长期借贷成本上升时,无论当前订单的出现如何强劲,这些设备的有效价格都会随其同时上涨。 因此整体工业与大市场相比跌了3倍以上,该部门最大,价值最高的卡特彼勒股份有限公司(NYSE:CAT)受到的打击最为严重. 估值已延展 然而,最重要的方面是,两种股票在10月7日出售之前已经以高倍数进行交易,这改变了出售的方式 阅读。 卡特彼勒在销售前的10月6日的交易额大约是收入的37.1倍,甚至超过了一个行业部门的交易标准,远高于其历史规范,在20世纪中后期出现了多次。 尽管Deere的农业最终市场目前经历了周期性衰退,而不是需求繁荣,Deere的多重性同样被夸大。 估值关注并非新问题:6月底,迈克尔·布利宣布卡特彼勒公司(NYSE:CAT)的短期职位为1 060.98美元,声称股票AI驱动的激增使其估值膨胀,超出其基础收入所能支持的范围. 卡特彼勒的"AI曝光"增加了"第二次风险",然而,这两股股票并没有同样接触同一故事. 卡特彼勒的落后销售增长是Deere的两倍多,18.36%对7.98%,在数据中心电力需求不断增长的同时,其建筑和资源工业部门也取得了强劲的绩效,积压工作持续到2029年和2030年。 这为卡特彼勒的更大倍增增长提供了指点,但也意味着卡特彼勒除了面临估值风险的第二个来源 利率:特别是对大赦国际基础设施支出的情绪。 其Power & Energy分部在2026年第二季度总销售额为82.4亿美元,逐年增长17%,而数据中心需求则成为公司成长故事的重要驱动力. 这种双重脆弱性是为什么更为相关的问题不是卡特彼勒公司(NYSE:CAT)能否继续增长,而是其AI相关电力部门能否补偿较慢的建筑周期. 股票已经表明,它可以单靠这种贸易出售,而不论利率如何。 卡特彼勒公司(NYSE:CAT)在9月中旬下降了4%,而Deere & Company(NYSE:DE)在同一天增加了1%,原因是担心超规模数据中心的承诺被过度延长. 如果投资者将卡特彼勒的AI驱动溢价与其更传统的建筑和采矿业务区分开来,这种分割才有意义. 吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)表示,收回可能是一个机会,因为卡特彼勒的发动机和发电设备已经成为数据中心发电能力的重要来源. Deere 是一个不同的恢复 同时, Deere & Company(NYSE:DE)是一个 更传统的周期性恢复赌注。 其公牛案例以农业需求底线为基础,并一直上升至2027年. 该公司将其财政2026年净收入预测提高到47.5亿美元至50亿美元,尽管管理层仍预计本财政年度美国和加拿大的大型农业设备需求将下降15%至20%。 农场利润率降低,投入价格上升,利率提高,使农民更不愿意更换昂贵的装备。 这就是为什么Deere的投资案例较少关注AI情绪,更关注其竞争优势,技术的采用,以及改进的旧设备库存是否会转化为长期复苏. 两家公司的对冲基金定位对冲基金所有权略有下降。 卡特彼勒的持有量从第一季度的87个基金下降到第二季度的84个,而迪尔则从62个降至59个. 下降幅度很小,规模几乎相同,但它们与估值情况的方向相同:机构投资者已经在减少两次股票交易的高度倍数风险,而长期收益却高达20年。 内线猴子 判决 这两种股票的下一个关键指标将是,鉴于它们在更广泛的市场销售中的作用,长期产量是否稳定,以及影响到设备制造商的监管问题。 然而,投资者应谨慎行事,不要将这种纯粹是导致对本来价格合理的公司进行折扣的利率故事。 卡特彼勒公司(NYSE:CAT)和Deere & Company(NYSE:DE)都以各自贸易史上一些最高的倍数开始这一周的交易. 在这种出售中寻找一个切入点的投资者应当区分两种情况:一是在基础条件仍然需要溢价的公司中,以利率驱动的短暂跌价购买股票,二是在10月7日跌价开始前,其倍数已经远超其增长率的股票购买. 虽然我们承认《禁止酷刑公约》作为一种投资的风险和潜力,但我们的信念在于相信,一些人工智能股票在提供更高回报方面有更大的希望,并且在较短的时间内这样做。 如果你要找一个比CAT更有前途的AI股票, 并且有1万倍的倒置潜力, 请看看我们关于这个最便宜的AI股票的报告.