English Title:
US Treasury yield peak still ahead as Fed likely to tighten again, PIMCO's Ivascyn says

中文标题：
美国国库收益的高峰 仍然领先,因为美联储可能再次收缩, PIMCO的Ivascyn说

English Content:
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - US Treasury yields may have further room to rise, with the Federal Reserve likely to deliver one or two more rate increases before the current tightening cycle ends, Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer at the world's largest bond manager, PIMCO, told Reuters on Tuesday. Speaking on the sidelines of the Grant's Fall Conference, Ivascyn said he expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged later this month, but sees scope for one or two additional hikes. "We'll probably see a Fed on hold now, and they probably go one more time this year," he said. "Our own view is that one to two tightenings, given the current outlook." US 10-year and 30-year yields hit multi-decade highs over the last two weeks. The selloff reflects investors pricing in multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes over the next 12 months amid a spike in oil prices that has rekindled inflation concerns. Ivascyn believes the long end of the curve could handle more Fed tightening because that has been priced in. But the risk is in the rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and commercial real estate. "Housing's already weak. Commercial real estate is where you're going to begin to see (the impact) and we are already seeing in our business more substantial weakening," the PIMCO CIO said. During the question- answer session at the conference, Ivascyn said he expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to approach inflation with an open mind, but warned that the Fed's committee may limit his room to maneuver. "We actually think Warsh is open-minded towards understanding this inflation process," Ivascyn said, pointing to crosscurrents and supply-side arguments tied to AI. He said Warsh may be "more inclined to wait and keep policy rates constant." Ivascyn, however, cautioned that the outlook has become harder to predict after a jump in headline inflation, with inflation above central-bank targets. He said the committee had communicated that further tightening might be needed before Warsh took over. As a first-time chair, Warsh may not want to oppose the committee, Ivascyn added. For now, Ivascyn sees policymakers leaning toward tighter policy until inflation becomes clearer. He expects Warsh to remain independent on interest rate and balance sheet decisions, while reducing the Fed's communication, an adjustment markets will have to deal with. (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Mark Porter and Sanjeev Miglani)

中文正文：
由Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss New York, October 13 (Reuters)——美国国库收益可能还有进一步上升的余地,美联储有可能在目前收缩周期结束前再增加一两个利率,世界最大债券经理PIMCO首席投资官丹·伊瓦辛星期二告诉路透社. 伊瓦辛在格兰特的秋季会议旁听时表示,他期望美联储本月晚些时候保持利率不变,但看到了再加一两次远足的空间. "我们可能会看到一个美联储现在被搁置,他们可能今年再去一次,"他说. "我们自己的观点是,考虑到目前的前景,一到两节收紧". 在过去两周里,美国10年和30年的产量达到最高点。 出售表明,在未来12个月里,由于油价暴涨,重新引发了对通货膨胀的担忧,美国联邦储备银行多次涨价。 Ivascyn认为曲线的长端可以承受更多的美联储紧缩,因为已经定价了. 但风险在于对利率敏感的部门,如住房和商业房地产。 房子已经很虚弱了 商业房地产就是你要去的地方 pIMCO CIO说, “我们已经开始看到(影响), 在会议上的问答会中,伊瓦辛表示他期望美联储主席凯文·沃什以开放的心态处理通货膨胀问题,但警告美联储的委员会可能会限制他的活动空间. "我们实际上认为沃什对理解这一通货膨胀过程持开放态度",伊瓦辛说,指向与AI联系在一起的交叉流派和供方争论. 他说沃什可能"更倾向于等待并保持政策利率不变". 然而,Ivascyn警告说,在头条通货膨胀猛增,通货膨胀超过中央银行目标后,前景变得难以预测。 他说,委员会已经通知说,在沃什接管之前可能需要进一步收紧. 作为第一任主席,瓦什可能不想反对委员会,伊瓦辛补充. 目前,伊瓦辛认为决策者倾向于紧缩政策,直到通货膨胀更加明显。 他期望沃什在利率和资产负债表决定上保持独立,同时减少美联储的沟通,调整市场将不得不处理. (格特鲁德的报告) Chavez-Dreyfuss;马克·波特和Sanjeev Miglani编著)