English Title:
Dollar retreats from 18-month high as oil prices fall, inflation data in focus

中文标题：
随着油价下跌、通货膨胀数据集中,美元从18个月高处退缩

English Content:
By Laura Matthews NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped from an 18-month high on Tuesday as oil prices retreated and investors reassessed the AI-fueled rally that has supported demand for US assets this year, while awaiting fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. "The dollar is retreating as skepticism grows over the strength and sustainability of artificial intelligence-related equity valuations, threatening to curb capital inflows into American financial markets," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. The dollar further extended losses after New York Fed President John Williams said he still expects one more rate hike this year, but sees no need for further increases in 2027. That left the US dollar index, a measure of the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, down 0.37% to 102.18 after reaching 102.61 on Monday, its highest level since April 2025. Markets expect US President Donald Trump to avoid escalation in the Middle East, as a wider conflict could hurt his standing ahead of the midterm elections next month. Trump said last week the US will not attack Iran before the elections, and he mentioned an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday. Oil prices fell 0.75% to $105.87 per barrel on Tuesday, as traders weighed the prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies. Russia said it can restore diesel exports beyond levels Trump outlined in a deal with Moscow. Beyond energy, analysts said the dollar's recent rally is also being challenged by growing doubts about the artificial intelligence-driven investment story. Investors are now awaiting the release on Wednesday of the US Consumer Price Index for September, which should provide further clues about possible Fed policy tightening. Investors abandoned bets on a Fed rate hike later this month after two policymakers argued for gathering more evidence before deciding whether further tightening is needed, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation expectations remained "well anchored." Traders see about an 80% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October 27-28 meeting, up from 51% a month ago, while pricing in about 75 basis points of tightening by late 2027, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed. "We think it's going to be softish. There's a bit of headline risk because of the oil prices," said Steven Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. "But some of the factors pushing up core are fading. Tariffs are last year's news."

中文正文：
由Laura Matthews New York, October 13 (路透社 ) , 美元从星期二的18个月高价下跌, "随着人们对人工智能相关股权估值的强度和可持续性产生怀疑,美元正在退缩,威胁遏制资本流入美国金融市场"多伦多科尔帕伊首席市场战略家卡尔·沙莫塔(Karl Schamotta)说. 美元进一步延长了纽约联邦总统约翰·威廉姆斯(John Williams)表示他仍期望今年再提速,但认为2027年没有必要再提速. 因此,美元指数,即衡量绿背党对六种货币的实力,在星期一达到自2025年4月以来的最高水平之后,下降了0.37%,降至102.18。 市场期望美国总统唐纳德·特朗普避免中东局势升级,因为一场更大的冲突可能会损害他在下月中期选举前的地位. 特朗普上周说,美国不会在选举前袭击伊朗,他提到 俄罗斯和乌克兰星期天的能源停火。 星期二油价下跌0.75%,每桶为105.87美元,因为贸易商权衡了俄罗斯增加柴油供应的前景。 俄罗斯表示,它可以将柴油出口恢复到与莫斯科交易中概述的水平以上. 除了能源,分析家们说,美元最近的集会也受到了对人工智能驱动的投资故事日益严重的质疑. 投资者现在正在等待9月的美国消费价格指数星期三发布,这将为美联储可能紧缩政策提供更多的线索。 投资者放弃了对美联储利率上涨的赌注,因为两位决策者主张在决定是否需要进一步收紧之前收集更多证据,而美联储州长克里斯托弗·沃勒则表示通胀预期仍然"扎实". 贸易商们看到,美联储在10月27-28日的会议上有可能将利率保持不变,比一个月前的51%有所上升,而到2027年末,CME集团的美联储观察工具显示,在75个基本收紧点中定价。 "我们觉得会很柔软. 因为油价 Steven Englander,纽约标准渣打银行全球G10 FX研究和北美宏观战略负责人. "但一些推动核心的因素正在逐渐消失. 关税是去年的新闻"