English Title:
Inflation likely worsened in September, according to Goldman Sachs

中文标题：
据高盛说,9月通货膨胀可能恶化

English Content:
Everything has gotten pricier this year, and Goldman Sachs believes that the next Consumer Price Index inflation report released on Wednesday, October 14, will reflect an economy under even greater strain. The 157-year-old investment bank has long been considered one of the savviest watchers of the economy and markets. It estimates that CPI increased 3.7% year-over-year in September, slightly above Wall Street's consensus of 3.6%, and up from 3.4% in August. "We expect a 0.59% increase in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.2%) and energy (+5.0%) prices, the latter driven by a further increase in retail gasoline prices. This corresponds to a year-over-year rate of +3.70% (vs. +3.6% consensus and +3.40% in August)," wrote Goldman Sachs in a research note shared with me. Americans caught in a price spiral driven by war in the Middle East The biggest driver of headline inflation is energy, and the spike in energy prices is directly tied to the negative impact on oil supply out of the Middle East since the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran escalated earlier this year. A major culprit in the oil supply disruption is the limited tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which has historically carried 20% of the world's oil supply. The bottlenecked Strait has caused Brent Oil Prices to surge 75% this year to $105 per barrel. West Texas Crude oil has similarly leaped to about $94 per barrel from beneath $60 at the beginning of 2026. Correspondingly, the prices of gasoline and diesel have surged, pressuring wallets and crimping budgets. Because oil is used for energy to produce goods, and shipping costs have increased, knock-on effects on prices are being felt throughout the economy. Core CPI is doing better, but still rising Economists like to track CPI excluding volatile oil and food prices as a smoother gauge of price pressure. Goldman Sachs expects that measure, known as Core CPI, to have increased last month as well. "We expect a 0.24% increase in September core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.46%," wrote Goldman Sachs' economists. Higher prices for autos and airfares are likely to capture attention. Goldman Sachs predicts a 0.5% increase in used car purchases from August, while airfares are expected to jump 3% month over month as airlines race to offset soaring jet fuel costs. The increase in airfares would be the highest since January 2026. Goldman Sachs sees more inflation through the end of the year The rise in prices isn't likely to be over, given that Goldman Sachs' forecast for the rest of the year shows CPI will increase in each of the next three months:

中文正文：
高盛认为,10月14日星期三公布的下一次消费物价指数通胀报告将反映出经济处于更大的压力之下。 157年的投资银行长期以来一直被认为是经济和市场最温馨的观察者之一. 据估计,9月消费物价指数年增长3.7%,略高于华尔街3.6%的共识,比8月的3.4%。 “我们期望头条消费物价上涨0.59%, 这相当于年复一年的+3.70%(vs.+3.6%的共识和+3.40%的8月),"高盛在一份与我分享的研究说明中写道. 美国人陷入了中东战争驱动的价格螺旋之中 头条通货膨胀的最大驱动力是能源,能源价格的飙升与今年早些时候美国、以色列和伊朗冲突升级以来对中东石油供应的负面影响直接相关。 石油供应中断的一个主要罪魁祸首是经过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮运输有限, 历史上它承载着世界20%的石油供应 瓶颈海峡使得布伦特油价今年猛增75%,达到每桶105美元. 西德克萨斯原油也从2026年初的60美元以下跃升到每桶94美元左右. 与此相应,汽油和柴油价格暴涨,给钱包造成压力,预算紧缩. 由于石油被用于生产商品的能源,运输成本也有所增加,因此在整个经济中都感受到了对价格的冲击效应。 核心消费物价指数表现得更好,但仍有不断上升的经济学家喜欢追踪消费物价指数,将波动的石油和粮食价格排除在外,作为价格压力的更平稳的衡量标准。 高盛希望这项被称为核心消费物价指数的措施上个月也有所增加。 "我们预计9月核心消费物价指数(vs+0.2%共识)将增长0.24%,相当于年复一年的+2.46%,"高盛的经济学家写道. 汽车和机票价格的上涨可能会引起人们的注意。 高盛公司预测从8月份起旧车购买量将增加0.5%,而随着航空公司竞速抵消飞涨的喷气式燃料成本,机票预计每月会猛增3%。 机票增加 这将是2026年1月以来最高的。 高盛的年终通货膨胀增加 由于高盛对今年剩余时间的预测显示, 消费物价指数在未来三个月里都会增加: