English Title:
Wall Street Sees Inflation Easing Even With Oil Above $90

中文标题：
华尔街即使石油超过90美元也能缓解通货膨胀

English Content:
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due to be released on Wednesday, with economists predicting that key inflation metrics continued to moderate in September despite elevated oil prices, giving the Fed room to slow down on interest rate hikes. For September, economists expect headline inflation growth to clock in at 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6%- 3.7% year-over-year, up from 0.4% m-o-m and 3.4% Y/Y in August. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is seen climbing 0.2% in September, down from August's 0.3%, with the annual core inflation rate expected to hold steady at 2.4%. Additionally, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the upcoming October 27–28 meeting has dropped to around 19% to 20%, down significantly from over 70% in late September. "You've seen supply shocks create a sticky situation," Jeffrey Schulze, head investment strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, told Morningstar, referring to oil supply disruptions, tariff shocks and AI-related consumer goods' price spikes. "But as we move toward 2027, some of these risks are going to start to moderate. That moderation may already be underway. I think you see softening across the board [in September]." Source: Morningstar While the headline inflation is already exposing the impact of rising crude prices, economists note that broader core inflation categories have remained insulated, showing little to no evidence of pass-through pricing. Airfares have absorbed the brunt of ongoing energy shocks, with price increases exceeding 2% m-o-m in both July and August and 25% Y/Y thanks to elevated jet fuel costs. Fuel represents roughly 17% to 21% of an airline's total operating expenses, making ticket pricing uniquely sensitive to oil price spikes. In contrast, pass-through effects for most retail and manufacturing sectors can take several months or even quarters to manifest. "I think that's going to be something that potentially shows up closer toward the end of the year, rather than in the September release," says Schulze. Related: OPEC Sees Oil Demand Growth Surging to 2.6 Million Bpd in 2027 U.S. oil and fuel prices have come down from recent highs but remain elevated. Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.0% to trade at $104.60 per barrel at 7.00 am ET on Tuesday, while WTI crude for November delivery declined by a similar margin to change hands at $91.89/bbl. Meanwhile, the average price of gasoline across the U.S. clocked in at $4.3413 per gallon on Tuesday, down from $4.8133/gal a month ago but much higher than around $2.98/gal before the war broke out in late February. Unfortunately, diesel prices have hardly budged, currently averaging $6.2787/gal from $6.3151 a week ago.

中文正文：
美国消费物价指数(CPI)报告定于星期三发布,经济学家预测,尽管油价上涨,关键通胀指标在9月仍然保持温和,让美联储在利率涨幅方面有放缓的余地. 9月,经济学家预计头条通货膨胀增长将达到每月0.5%和每年3.6%至3.7%的时钟,从8月份的0.4%米和3.4%。 与此同时,核心消费物价指数(不包括波动的能源和食品价格)在9月比8月的0.3%,上升0.2%,预计年度核心通货膨胀率将稳定在2.4%。 此外,在即将到来的10月27日至28日会议上,美联储利率升幅的概率已经下降到约19%至20 % , 从9月下旬的70 % 大幅下降。 "你已经看到供应冲击造成了一种粘滞的局面",富兰克林·坦普顿研究所首席投资战略师杰弗里·舒尔泽(Jeffrey Schulze)告诉Morningstar,提到石油供应中断,关税冲击和AI相关的消费品价格飙升. "但随着我们走向2027年,其中一些风险将开始缓解. 这种温和可能已经开始。 我觉得你 "看到全局软化[9月]". 资料来源:晨星。 虽然头条通货膨胀已经暴露了原油价格上涨的影响,但经济学家指出,更广泛的核心通货膨胀类别仍然没有隔绝,几乎没有或根本没有过关定价的证据。 由于喷气燃料成本上升,7月和8月的价格上涨超过2%米,年/年上涨25%。 燃料占航空公司业务总开支的17%至21%左右,使票价对油价飙升特别敏感。 相比之下,对于大多数零售和制造部门来说,通过效应可能需要几个月甚至几个月的时间才能显现出来。 "我想那会是有可能在接近年底的时候,而不是在9月的发行中出现的东西,"舒尔泽说. 相关:欧佩克石油需求增长猛增,2027年美国石油和燃料价格从最近的高点下跌至260万比普德,但仍在上涨。 12月交货的布伦特原油跌了2.0%,星期二每桶104.60美元,每桶7.00瓦特输油管,11月交货的WTI原油下降幅度与 以91.89/bbl换手。 与此同时,整个美国的平均汽油价格在星期二达到每加仑4.3413美元,低于一个月前的4.8133美元/加仑,但远高于2月下旬战争爆发前的2.98美元/加仑左右。 不幸的是,柴油价格几乎没有起伏,目前平均价格为每加元6.2787美元,而一周前为6.3151美元.