English Title:
Economists Expect 10-Year Treasury Yield to End 2026 at 5.1%

中文标题：
经济学家预计到2026年底将用5.1%

English Content:
This story was originally published on CRE Daily. Join 70,000+ commercial real estate professionals getting daily news, market insights, and industry analysis delivered straight to their inbox with the free CRE Daily newsletter. Key Takeaways - Economists expect the 10-year yield to finish 2026 at 5.1%, up sharply from July's 4.4% forecast, and see it easing only slowly, to 4.78% by the end of 2027. - Forecasters cite firmer growth, new inflation pressure and worries about the federal debt, with 2026 GDP growth projected at 2.4% and a 24% chance of recession over the next 12 months. - Higher Treasury yields push up mortgage and corporate borrowing costs, so commercial real estate owners should plan around elevated financing costs for years rather than a quick reversal. A new Wall Street Journal survey of 71 economists, fielded Oct. 2-7, puts the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.1% by the end of 2026, versus the 4.4% they forecast in July. The bigger message is duration. Forecasters no longer treat the climb in long-term rates as a blip, and expect borrowing costs to stay high well beyond this year. A Slow Glide Lower Respondents expect the benchmark to ease to 4.96% by June 2027. By December 2027, they see it reaching 4.78%. Both estimates exceed the July survey's forecasts of 4.3% and 4.26%. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports that yields have reached their highest levels in about 25 years. Stronger economic growth and renewed inflation pressures have contributed to the rise. Concerns about federal finances have added to the pressure. As a result, several economists have reconsidered how strongly investors will continue buying Treasurys. Why Rates May Stay Elevated Allen Sinai of Decision Economics argues that the Fed remains behind on inflation. This view persists despite September's hike, its first in three years. The Fed's own projections also show its policy rate above 4% this year and holding there through 2027. Sinai expects the 10-year yield to approach 6% in 2027. He also sees it staying above 5% for the rest of the decade. That outlook resembles PIMCO's 6% warning. Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust takes a less aggressive view. He projects yields near 5.2% through 2028 and 5% in 2029. However, he sees competing forces at work. Rising federal debt and AI-related capital demand could push yields higher. Conversely, a settlement of the Iran conflict could help bring them down. Growth Up, Inflation Sticky Forecasters raised their 2026 GDP growth estimate to 2.4%, up from 2.1% in July. A stronger second quarter helped lift expectations. Additionally, signs point to third-quarter growth above 3%. Beyond 2026, economists expect annual growth of 2.1% to 2.2%.

中文正文：
这个故事最初发表于CRE日报. 加入7万多名商业房地产专业人士,获得每日新闻、市场见解和产业分析,直接通过免费的CRE Daily通讯传送到他们的收件箱。 Key Takeaways - 经济学家们预计10年的产量将以5.1%完成2026年,从7月的4.4%的预测大幅上升,到2027年底它只缓慢放松到4.78%. 预测者引用了更强劲的增长、新的通货膨胀压力和对联邦债务的担忧,2026年GDP增长预测为2.4%,在未来12个月中出现衰退的机率为24%。 ——国库增产推高抵押贷款和企业借款成本,因此商业房地产所有者应围绕高额融资成本规划多年,而不是快速逆转. 新的华尔街日报调查71名经济学家, 十月二至七日, 更大的信息是持续时间。 预测者不再将长期利率的攀升视为低潮,预计今年以后的借贷费用将居高不下。 一个慢滑的低级答复者预计到2027年6月基准将放宽到4.96%。 以 2027年12月,他们看到达到4.78%. 这两项估计都超过了7月调查的预测,即4.3%和4.26%。 同时,"华尔街日报"报道,产量在大约25年中达到了最高水平. 更强劲的经济增长和新的通货膨胀压力促成了这一增长。 对联邦财政的担忧增加了压力. 因此,一些经济学家重新考虑了投资者将继续购买财政部的力度。 美联储在通货膨胀方面仍然落后。 尽管9月份的涨幅是三年来第一次,但这种观点依然存在。 美联储本身的预测也表明今年的政策利率高于4%,并一直维持到2027年. 西奈预计10年的产量在2027年接近6%. 他也看到在十年的余下时间里它保持在5%以上. 这种前景类似于PIMCO的6%警告. 卡尔·坦南鲍姆 信任的观点不那么激进。 他的项目在2028年和2029年的产量分别接近5.2%和5%. 然而,他看到相互竞争的力量正在发挥作用。 不断增长的联邦债务和AI相关的资本需求可以推动更高的收益。 相反,伊朗的解决方案 冲突可以帮助击垮他们。 通货膨胀粘滞预测器将2026年GDP增长估计数提高到2.4%,从7月的2.1%。 第二季度的加强有助于提高人们的期望。 此外,有迹象表明第三季度的增长超过3%。 2026年以后,经济学家预计年增长率为2.1%至2.2%.